Which manufacturers will be fucked in 2030?

[SiC]

Last year in 2021 there was more pure electric cars sold than diesels. Include hybrids (basically watered down pure electric) then its quite a substantial difference. This is 9 years before 2030. So only likely to increase further.

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As I said on AS:
China car manufacturers had a head start in electric cars as they had no proper indigenous engine manufacturing technology and their cities were already getting clogged up with fumes. So they saw the future (certainly for their own country) and it made sense for their manufacturers to pile into electric propulsion.

If Western manufacturers won't supply full electric cars by then, the Chinese manufacturers will.

A pure electric car gives you Rolls-Royce levels of drivetrain smoothness, supercar levels of performance and much cheaper refueling costs. What's not to like for the majority of car buyers?

The only thing holding them back is range. That can be surmounted by stuffing more cells in the battery. It is why Tesla gained so much popularity as, they saw this consumer hesitance and stuffed as many in as they reasonably could, to increase range as far as they could.

[SiC]

But the ban is only on sales of vehicles that are solely petrol or diesel powered so we could just get ‘hybrids’ where the electric bit is no more than a wiper motor strapped to a driveshaft

Only until 2035. By which point most of Europe looks to be banning emitting cars by then too.

Really there isn't much difference to Europe's policy. I'd be surprised if almost all cars sold in 2030 weren't electric or those with ICE, a hybrid. Even right now (well since >2010) we get "mild" hybrids where they strap on something not dissimilar to a golf buggy motor and a battery with the capacity of a leisure battery. Afaik that would be fine for the 2030 legislation as a new car.

Given the similarity to upcoming legislation in European countries and elsewhere, I suspect it won't affect many manufacturers at all.

[LynehamHerc]

How much of this growth is being driven by the low BIK tax rates on company cars though? There'll be a ceiling once most co car users have gone down this route and Rishi is almost certainly sharpening his pencil to drastically increase it, it's low hanging fruit in tax collection terms and he needs all the cash that he can get.

The Early Adopters have no doubt already adopted as well so there's not much more growth there. I occasionally look at an E Up! but the price of one is about twice an ICE version, which already does about 60mpg, so savings in fuel costs are negligible.

[SiC]

Got any data on it? I tried searching but couldn't find anything. However company cars are much less of a thing now than they ever have been. Price difference when on finance isn't so large between BEV and petrol/diesel though.

Small electric cars like the Up! struggle to be economically and engineering viable propositions. It's thought the move to BEV could kill the small car off.

[mercrocker]

Surely there will always be a certain amount of demand for size-based car classes, though? They already make little economic sense, pound for pound, other than fuel economy but are still a popular sector given the space squeeze many folk experience.

There's a house in our street with a Copen, a titchy Suzuki of some sort (not a Cappucino, some kind of hatchback) and an Aygo - all parked in the front drive which is barely long enough for them, fronting double yellows on the road outside. There's no way they would get 3 of anything else there...

[panhard65]

I have been into 2 different main dealers in the last few months collecting parts and both times I have overheard the service department people trying to explain to unhappy customers why the range is suddenly so shit on their car. The lady with a Vauxhall had the car on demo and was complaining that it had 130 miles left the night before and after one school run of about 4 miles her range had dropped to less than 40 miles. The poor service guy was having to explain that if she wants to use the heater, lights, wipers etc then it will drastically reduce the range. Hyundai was just as bad but the guy there blamed it on sub optimal temperature as the battery needing to be heated which also reduced the range. I think you really have to be committed to electric cars to put up with this shit, I would of thrown the keys back and said keep the fucking thing.

[Jerzy Woking]

If you want to buy something new with an ICE in 2030, then buy a motorbike, although zero emissions for them come in in 2035.

Only 1,400 electric bikes were sold in ALL of Europe in 2020, just 1.3% of sales, most of which were small scooters, equivalent to 50cc. Very poor in comparison to electric cars v ICE cars.

Unless something drastic happens with battery technology, this could be the death knell for motorcycles. The Zero I borrowed had a range of 136 miles. It was practically dead after 60 miles of riding, as on the motorway there was no regeneration.

[Eddie Honda]

was practically dead after 60 miles of riding, as on the motorway there was no regeneration.

TBH, that'd do me. 54 miles to work and back X 5 days.

[Jerzy Woking]

was practically dead after 60 miles of riding, as on the motorway there was no regeneration.

TBH, that'd do me. 54 miles to work and back X 5 days.

That was on a nice, warm summers day. Fuck knows what the range on my commute would have been in the winter. Nice bikes but for £20k, no thanks.

I did actually buy a Lifan electric scooter, but got it trade price. It was alright for local trips, as the roads were flat, and it could do 25 miles at 40mph (upgraded controller). It never coped verý well with gradients, and as I now live 6kms up a hill, I sold it for what I paid for it. Best thing though was it colour matched my RC8

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[Eddie Honda]

was practically dead after 60 miles of riding, as on the motorway there was no regeneration.

TBH, that'd do me. 54 miles to work and back X 5 days.

That was on a nice, warm summers day. Fuck knows what the range on my commute would have been in the winter. Nice bikes but for £20k, no thanks.

Only about 5 or so miles of that is 120km/h limit, most of it is 80km/h and a short bit is 100km/h. But I know I won't spunk 20k on a new bike, but might spunk a load cobbling something together in the shed.